Addis Abeba — US President Donald J. Trump has offered to restart United States–led mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile waters and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), describing the staus as “truly understandable” but warning against the risk of military confrontation.
In a letter dated 16 January and addressed to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Trump said resolving tensions around the GERD was “at the very top of my agenda,” linking the issue to his broader push for “lasting peace in the Middle East and Africa.”
READ [PDF]: Letter from U.S. President Trump to Egyptian President Sisi
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“I am ready to restart U.S. mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia to responsibly resolve the question of ‘The Nile Water Sharing’ once and for all,” Trump wrote, adding that his team understood “the deep significance of the Nile River to Egypt and its people.”
The president added that Washington’s position was that “no state in this region should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile, and disadvantage its neighbors in the process,” while also stressing the need for an outcome that secures the long-term water needs of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
According to the letter, Trump believes a deal is achievable through “the right technical expertise, fair and transparent negotiations, and a strong United States role in monitoring and coordinating between parties.” He said such an agreement could “guarantee predictable water releases during droughts and prolonged dry years for Egypt and the Sudan,” while allowing Ethiopia “to generate very substantial amounts of electricity,” some of which could be “given, or sold, to Egypt and/or the Sudan.”
The letter also reflects Trump’s views that the GERD matter could escalate into open conflict. “I very much hope that this truly understandable dispute over the GERD (DAM!) will not lead to major Military conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia,” he wrote.
The letter was copied to several regional leaders, notably including Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, signaling Riyadh’s potential interest or role in regional diplomacy around the Nile and GERD. Also CC’d were UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan; Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie; and Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council Chairman, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
The letter came a day after reports emerged that Saudi Arabia is finalizing an agreement on a new military coalition with Somalia and Egypt, a move widely seen as part of Riyadh’s effort to curb the United Arab Emirates’ expanding regional influence.
The GERD has periodically featured in inflammatory political rhetoric by President Trump. In the summer of last year, he made a series of false claims regarding the project, asserting that “America funded the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)” and that the dam “has cut off water from the Nile River” and “reduced Egypt’s water supply.”
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump wrote that he would not receive “a Nobel Peace Prize for keeping peace between Egypt and Ethiopia,” referring to what he described as “a massive Ethiopian-built dam, stupidly financed by the United States of America, [that] substantially reduces the water flowing into the Nile River.” He made the remarks while listing what he said were achievements that, in his view, merited consideration for the Nobel Peace Prize. Ethiopia has repeatedly stated that GERD is financed domestically and maintains that the dam is designed to regulate, not reduce, downstream Nile flows, a position supported by independent technical assessments.
The United States’ direct involvement in negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dates back to President Donald Trump’s first term in office in 2019.
Following instructions issued by the leaders of Egypt and Ethiopia during a Russia–Africa Summit sideline meeting in Sochi on 24 October 2019, a renewed round of dialogue was convened in Washington, D.C. The talks were hosted jointly by then US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and World Bank Group President David Malpass, and were attended by the foreign ministers of Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. The ministers were also received by President Trump at the White House.
The Washington meetings revived formal negotiations as a continuation of earlier engagement, which had included five technical experts’ meetings and three ministerial-level sessions. As part of this process, the remaining four technical negotiation rounds were set in motion.
But despite early momentum, the US-facilitated process soon reached an impasse. After December 2019, negotiations stalled once again, with Egypt accused of halting progress on talks over the filling and operation of the GERD.
After years of stalled diplomacy, talks were formally rebooted on 13 July 2023, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met face to face in Cairo.
The meeting marked the first high-level breakthrough in nearly a decade of talks involving Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. At the conclusion of the discussions, the two leaders agreed to work toward finalizing an agreement on the first filling and the annual operation of the GERD within a four-month timeframe.
However, the renewed diplomatic push failed to yield the anticipated breakthrough. Four subsequent rounds of talks, two held in Cairo and two in Addis Abeba, ended without an agreement.
Instead, the stalemate deepened when Egypt announced its withdrawal from the GERD negotiations, accusing Ethiopia of a “persistent refusal to accept any of the technical or legal compromise solutions that would safeguard the interests of all three countries.”
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In August 2024, Egypt formally withdrew from Nile dam talks scheduled with Ethiopia, arguing that the proposal put forward by Addis Abeba lacked clear regulations governing dam operations and contained no binding legal mechanism for dispute resolution. Sudan signaled a similar stance, warning that it could also step away from the process and rejecting proposals related to the sharing of Blue Nile waters.
Both Cairo and Khartoum called for a suspension of the negotiations to allow for internal consultations on the proposed terms, a move that ran counter to prior understandings reached during an African Union summit, which had committed the parties to continued engagement.
Egypt and Sudan have long grounded their position in what they describe as “historic rights” to the Nile, based on agreements concluded in 1929 and 1959. Ethiopia, by contrast, cites the 2010 Cooperative Framework Agreement, signed by six Nile Basin countries but boycotted by Egypt and Sudan.
Despite repeated diplomatic setbacks and the failure to revive negotiations, Ethiopia proceeded with the project and formally inaugurated the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in September 2025. AS
