global locomotive
In its regional economic outlook, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026 and 2027 for sub-Saharan Africa, despite the war in the Middle East. That average masks wide disparities.
By
Alix Lavoué
The energy shock from the Gulf war has not derailed African growth. In the update to its Regional Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has even raised its 2026 forecast by 0.2 points to 4.5%, the same pace as in 2025.
According to Zeine Ould Zeidane, director of the IMF’s African Department, this resilience stems first and foremost from the “significant reforms” carried out in recent years, which made it possible to rebuild room for manoeuvre before the shock. But “the stability of regional growth masks very different national trajectories”, the report warns.
